Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
