It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
